Year-end Results and Outlook Reaffirm our Core Investment Thesis; Construction of Muskogee, OK Plant on Track; Reiterate BUY Rating.

Stardust Power CEO Roshan Pujari updated investors on the company’s year-end results call last Thursday after the close. No official financial guidance was provided.

For FY’24, Stardust incurred a net loss of $23.8M and for the period from March 16, 2023 (inception date) through December 31, 2023, i.e. the prior period, the Company incurred a net loss of $3.8M, the increase driven by higher G&A expenses tied to public co. expenses and a broader scope of operations.

Loss per share was ($0.55) for FY’24, compared to ($0.09) for the prior period, the increase being driven mainly by higher G&A expenses due to personnel-related costs and finance charges. Our estimate was ($0.08).

We view the recently announced agreements with Sumitomo (supply) and KMX Technologies (VMD concentration technology) as promising, although investor psychology regarding the macro environment for lithium pricing and Stardust’s financing options for the plant construction remain sunsettled, likely pressuring shares.

Plant construction timeline appears on track. The $1.2B two phase construction project will first complete a production line with a capacity of 25,000 metric tons/year (expected to be in2027), followed by the second production phase doubling the capacity.

Management highlighted several capital raising events recently, including raising $5.75M via anequity transaction with an institutional investor, issuing 4.79M shares of common stock at $1.20/share along with 4.79M cash warrants at an exercise price of $1.30. Additionally, on March 17, 2025, the Company entered into a warrant inducement agreement with the same investor, generating approximately $2.9M in gross proceeds from the exercise of 4.79M warrants at a revised exercise price of $0.62.

We attribute the recent selloff of SDST shares to: (1.) Continued softness in lithium pricing worldwide, spurred by continued oversupply of lithium from China, together with increased geopolitical and trade uncertainty, and (2.) Recent capital-raising announcements from the company, and the increased likelihood of additional capital raises. We note that management’s execution thus far has been consistent with its stated goals and timelines.

We continue to believe that the company’s operating model remains superior to alternative forms of lithium extraction and refining.

Changes to our model: We are maintaining our 2028 estimates. We are leaving our revenue estimates for YE25, YE26 and YE27 estimates unchanged, but are reducing our EPS estimates for those years to ($0.29), ($0.26) and ($0.52), respectively, due mostly to higher SG&A expense assumptions and higher estimated financing expenses.

We are maintaining our Buy rating on SDST shares, noting the increasingly positive developments on the trade policy front from Washington for Stardust as well as solid execution of the construction project to this point.